I have often and extensively dealt with the planning of e-commerce revenues in recent years. Planning by cohorts has proven to be one of the most stable methods for me. This type of planning forces you to think about the important KPIs for acquisition and retention. You will always have a certain churn in your cohorts, and at the same time, your acquisition costs are unlikely to fall below a certain level. Additionally, there are some fixed costs that you cannot avoid in e-commerce. Especially logistics costs significantly reduce your contribution margin per order.

When considering starting an e-commerce business, what factors should you pay particular attention to:

Increasing AOV (Average Order Value): The higher your average basket size, the lower the proportional logistics and transaction costs. There is hardly a more important starting point.

Product Fit/Retention: A good product automatically leads to reorders/word of mouth. You need repeat orders to cover the new customer acquisition costs over time.

Use my model to test your ecommerce idea.